SILICON VALLEY DATA
When does buying make sense?
A mortgage is a leverage tool. Your down payment controls 5x its value in appreciating real estate. The S&P gives you 1:1. Find your breakeven below.
5:1
Your leverage
with 20% down
25.0%
Leveraged ROE
return on your equity
10.0%
S&P return
same capital, no leverage
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RETURN ON YOUR CAPITAL (annualized)
Home (leveraged)
25.0%
25.0%
S&P 500
10.0%
10.0%
20-Year Wealth Crossover
Buyer equity
Renter portfolio
Buyer equity at year 10
$1,429,368
Renter portfolio at year 10
$1,212,924
Monthly tax savings
$1,579
from itemizing mortgage interest
Your rent at year 10
$7,330
up from $4,500 today
HISTORICAL EVIDENCE
This isn't hypothetical
Silicon Valley home values have grown 466% since 1995. Real appreciation data from Redfin for 11 cities — compared against S&P 500 returns at 20% down leverage.
—
30-yr CAGR
San Jose MSA
—
10-yr CAGR
San Jose MSA
—
5-yr CAGR
San Jose MSA
9.5%
S&P 10-yr return
unleveraged
Leveraged ROE vs S&P 500 — 11 Silicon Valley Cities (20% down)
Leveraged ROE
S&P 500
| City | 2015 | 2025 | 10-yr CAGR | Leveraged ROE | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading city data… | |||||
Source: Redfin median sale price data, S&P 500 historical returns. Leveraged ROE calculated at 20% down payment. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Want to factor in your RSUs, Prop 13, and rate buy-down options?
I'll model your exact scenario in 15 minutes — no cost, no obligation.
Your scenario: $1.5M home, 20% down, $350K income — Buying wins by $216,444
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Xavier Williams
Silicon Valley REALTOR®
DRE #02242451